Sports Arbitrage Betting Questions and Answers - How do I avoid deposit fees?

Steps to successful betting – Part 2

Step 1 – Finding your edge

There are a number of ways you can find an edge. Some punters take a statistical approach and go through seasons and seasons of data looking for relationships within the numbers. Others may make it their business to know everything there is to know about their local teams; who is injured, current form players and other bits and pieces of information that you would only get to hear about if you were really close to the team.

To gain an advantage, you need to be better informed than the bookie, or be prepared to do more work than the bookie could be expected to do.

Step 2 – Finding value

On a simple level this can mean making sure you are getting the most for your money. For the majority of purchases we make, we will usually take a little time to compare prices to make sure we are getting value for money. You should do the same with your betting. Shop around and see what odds are available. There is a huge amount of competition out there so make sure you use the best prices.

Finding value can also mean calculating whether the odds being offered represent value in comparison to the fair odds. The true value bettor will bet on an outsider if he thinks its offers value, even if he believes that the favourite has the best chance of winning. If all your bets hold value against the bookie odds then you will come out on top over time.

Step 3 - Bets that you should NEVER make

If you walk past a bookmaker’s window on your local high street, you will almost always see a poster advertising the odds available for predicting the correct score and the first goal scorer, commonly known as a score cast. It is no coincidence that bookies advertise these bets in the window. The true odds of the selection winning are far higher than the actual odds being offered. This is called the over round and is one way the bookmaker makes his money. Generally speaking, the higher the odds the higher the over round and the less chance the punter stands of winning. Stick to singles. Avoid doubles, trebles, accumulators and other long shots unless they represent value.

Stay away from those ridiculous bets that are a complete lottery and involve no skill whatsoever. For example, the number totals on the back of the shirts. These are bets compiled by bookies FOR bookies.

The majority of games you find in a casino have an inbuilt house edge and are games of chance. You will never make long-term profits playing games of chance against the house. Start to play games that where there is no house edge or if there is one, it is minimal, for example Blackjack and Poker.

Step 4 - Bets that you should take

On a general level, you should always take or make the following bets:

Any bet that you believe represents value in comparison to the bookie odds
Games that include an element of skill, e.g. Blackjack, Poker, Sports Betting,
As we want to avoid doubles, trebles and accumulators, we want to focus our bets on singles, and for football, Asian handicap betting where the over rounds are lower than for traditional bets.
It has been statistically proven that odds on bets (where the potential return is less than the initial stake) provide a higher return than betting on outsiders.

Step 5 – Education

It is always a mistake to think that you know all there is to know. Always be on the look out for ways to improve and also have the flexibility to make changes if you think necessary. It is relatively easy to be successful in the short term, but to be long term successful requires the ability to adapt and evolve as the market changes.